A methodology is provided for informing targeted Demand-Response (DR) and marketing programs that focus on the temperature-sensitive part of residential electricity demand. The methodology uses energy consumption readings collected from "smart" electricity meters, as well as hourly temperature readings. Individual consumption is decomposed into a thermal-sensitive part and a base load (non thermally-sensitive), a model of temperature response that is based on thermal regimes, i.e., unobserved decisions of customers to use their heating or cooling appliances. This model is used to extract useful benchmarks that compose a thermal profiles of individual customers, i.e., terse characterizations of the statistics of these customers' temperature-sensitive consumption. This knowledge may, in turn, inform the DR program by allowing scarce operational and marketing budgets to be spent on customers whose influencing will yield highest energy reductions at the right time. Methods are also provided for scheduling optimal, individual customer controls of the thermal appliance to achieve a desired profile of the aggregate energy reductions.
STATEMENT OF GOVERNMENT SPONSORED SUPPORT
 This invention was made with Government support under contract no. DE-AR0000018 awarded by the Department of Energy. The Government has certain rights in the invention.