Creation of new edges in a network may be used as an indication of a potential attack on the network. Historical data of a frequency with which nodes in a network create and receive new edges may be analyzed. Baseline models of behavior among the edges in the network may be established based on the analysis of the historical data. A new edge that deviates from a respective baseline model by more than a predetermined threshold during a time window may be detected. The new edge may be flagged as potentially anomalous when the deviation from the respective baseline model is detected. Probabilities for both new and existing edges may be obtained for all edges in a path or other subgraph. The probabilities may then be combined to obtain a score for the path or other subgraph. A threshold may be obtained by calculating an empirical distribution of the scores under historical conditions.
STATEMENT OF FEDERAL RIGHTS
 The United States government has rights in this invention pursuant to Contract No. DE-AC52-06NA25396 between the United States Department of Energy and Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the operation of Los Alamos National Laboratory.