A method for enrolling utility customers in utility demand response or energy efficiency programs based on time-series consumption data includes collecting from smart meter sensors time-series utility consumption data from individual utility customers, extracting features from the consumption data, generating a probabilistic response model for each customer representing a relationship between the extracted features and customer program performance by estimating parameters of a response distribution, solving an optimization problem for each customer using the estimated response distribution to achieve a targeting objective, and enrolling selected customers in programs based on the solution to the optimization problem.
STATEMENT OF GOVERNMENT SPONSORED SUPPORT
 This invention was made with Government support under grant (or contract) no. DE-AR0000018 awarded by the Department of Energy. The Government has certain rights in the invention.