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SYSTEM AND METHOD FOR MODELING AND FORECASTING CYCLICAL DEMAND SYSTEMS WITH DYNAMIC CONTROLS AND DYNAMIC INCENTIVES

United States Patent Application

20140324532
A1
View the Complete Application at the US Patent & Trademark Office
Systems and methods for modeling and forecasting cyclical demand systems in the presence of dynamic control or dynamic incentives. A method for modeling a cyclical demand system comprises obtaining historical data on one or more demand measurements over a plurality of demand cycles, obtaining historical data on incentive signals over the plurality of demand cycles, constructing a model using the obtained historical data on the one or more demand measurements and the incentive signals, wherein constructing the model comprises specifying a state-space model, specifying variance parameters in the model, and estimating unknown variance parameters.
Ghosh, Soumyadip (Peekskill, NY), Hosking, Jonathan R.M. (Scarsdale, NY), Natarajan, Ramesh (Pleasantville, NY), Subramanian, Shivaram (Danbury, CT), Zhang, Xiaoxuan (Park Ridge, NJ)
International Business Machines Corporation (Armonk NY)
13/ 869,628
April 24, 2013
[0001] This invention was made with Government support under Contract No. DE-OE0000190 awarded by the Department of Energy. The government has certain rights to this invention.