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ONLINE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF NEUTRON TIME INTERVALS USING BAYESIAN PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

United States Patent Application

20130304396
A1
View the Complete Application at the US Patent & Trademark Office
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory - Visit the Industrial Partnerships Office Website
Embodiments for providing rapid characterization of an unknown nuclear source are described. A sequential Bayesian particle filter is used to analyze in real time the neutron inter-arrival times to estimate the multiplication of the source, the mass of the spontaneously fissioning isotope, the neutron detection efficiency, and the neutron lifetime. A method defines an array of trial solutions, each specifying a combination of fissile parameters characterizing the source; determines a first time interval between a first neutron and a second neutron detected by the neutron detector; calculates a probability distribution of an array of the parameter values; determines additional time intervals between each subsequent successive pairs of neutrons detected by the neutron detector; and refines the probability distribution based on the additional time intervals using a recursive Bayesian process to estimate the most probable combination of parameter values.
Walston, Sean E. (Fremont, CA)
13/ 466,829
May 8, 2012
STATEMENT REGARDING FEDERALLY SPONSORED RESEARCH [0001] The United States Government has rights in this invention pursuant to Contract No. DE-AC52-07NA27344 between the United States Department of Energy and Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC.